bookmark_borderPredictions for 2013

Originally uploaded by Paolo Dallorso

After two years of really bad predictions, I was going to follow my dear wife’s advice and make predictions with a decent chance of success. However, sometimes it’s more fun to predict slightly less probable events, so here’s my list for 2013:

  1. At least one of Scotland’s unionist parties will change their leader.
  2. It will finally become possible to obtain dual citizenship in Denmark.
  3. One more country will join Scotland and Catalunya in planning an independence referendum for 2014.
  4. The CDU/CSU will continue to be the largest political grouping in the German Bundestag after the election.
  5. The Eurozone will survive another year (although Greece and Spain in particular will continue to suffer).
  6. Facebook will continue to be the most popular social networking site.
  7. The kids won’t get any opportunity to use their sledges or build an igloo in Newton Mearns.
  8. England will join Scotland and Denmark in not qualifying for the 2014 FIFA World Cup.
  9. Rangers FC will collapse again.
  10. The UK won’t win the Eurovision Song Contest in Malmö.

bookmark_borderMy predictions for 2012 :-(

Sad Face Cone Head Bath
Originally uploaded by Edgar Sousa

I guess it’s time to evaluate my predictions for 2012:

  1. The referendum on Scottish independence won’t take place yet. Right.
  2. SF will leave the Danish government. Wrong, but they changed their leader.
  3. It will again become possible to get a Danish passport in Scotland. Well, not for adults, but small children can now again get it here as far as I know.
  4. The euro will not collapse – all current members will remain inside the Eurozone. Right.
  5. The British inflation rate (measured by CPI) will not fall below 4%. Wrong — it fell as low as 2.2% before rising again.
  6. UEFA 2012 will be won by the Netherlands. Wrong.
  7. After a year with record-breaking levels of rain, Scotland will enjoy its second-warmest year ever. Wrong; Scotland had a very warm March, but not in general a very warm year, and although it has been the wettest year ever in England, Scotland hasn’t been quite as exceptional.
  8. The Icelandic volcano Katla will erupt and cause a new flight ban over Europe. Wrong.
  9. The Russian government will be forced to step down and call fresh elections. Wrong.
  10. The Eurovision Song Contest will be won by Georgia.Wrong.

So, about 2 1/2 out of 10. 🙁

I’m afraid that Troels — who predicted “the negation of each individual statement” — produced a more accurate forecast.