After two years of really bad predictions, I was going to follow my dear wife’s advice and make predictions with a decent chance of success. However, sometimes it’s more fun to predict slightly less probable events, so here’s my list for 2013:
- At least one of Scotland’s unionist parties will change their leader.
- It will finally become possible to obtain dual citizenship in Denmark.
- One more country will join Scotland and Catalunya in planning an independence referendum for 2014.
- The CDU/CSU will continue to be the largest political grouping in the German Bundestag after the election.
- The Eurozone will survive another year (although Greece and Spain in particular will continue to suffer).
- Facebook will continue to be the most popular social networking site.
- The kids won’t get any opportunity to use their sledges or build an igloo in Newton Mearns.
- England will join Scotland and Denmark in not qualifying for the 2014 FIFA World Cup.
- Rangers FC will collapse again.
- The UK won’t win the Eurovision Song Contest in Malmö.
I guess it’s time to evaluate my predictions for 2012:
- The referendum on Scottish independence won’t take place yet. Right.
- SF will leave the Danish government. Wrong, but they changed their leader.
- It will again become possible to get a Danish passport in Scotland. Well, not for adults, but small children can now again get it here as far as I know.
- The euro will not collapse – all current members will remain inside the Eurozone. Right.
- The British inflation rate (measured by CPI) will not fall below 4%. Wrong — it fell as low as 2.2% before rising again.
- UEFA 2012 will be won by the Netherlands. Wrong.
- After a year with record-breaking levels of rain, Scotland will enjoy its second-warmest year ever. Wrong; Scotland had a very warm March, but not in general a very warm year, and although it has been the wettest year ever in England, Scotland hasn’t been quite as exceptional.
- The Icelandic volcano Katla will erupt and cause a new flight ban over Europe. Wrong.
- The Russian government will be forced to step down and call fresh elections. Wrong.
- The Eurovision Song Contest will be won by Georgia.Wrong.
So, about 2 1/2 out of 10. 🙁
I’m afraid that Troels — who predicted “the negation of each individual statement” — produced a more accurate forecast.