The newspapers are happily reporting that the Boxing Day sales have been the busiest ever.
They frame it in such positive language that they must think this is evidence the recession is coming to a close.
However, further down in the article, they point out that retail sales in December this year were even worse than last year.
They also point out that people are especially going for biggish investments such as laptops, TVs and appliances.
So my analysis is that the recession is hitting even harder than last year, which is why people didn’t buy much before Christmas.
Now they’re worried that the price of everything will rise once VAT goes up on 1st January, so lots of families are planning ahead and buying everything they’ll need over the next year or so now.
If I’m right, retail sales in January will be the worst ever, and the country will end up in the dreaded double-dip recession.