bookmark_borderNo normal person will ever own a self-driving car

Google prototype self-driving car
Google prototype self-driving car.
A few things I’ve read recently have convinced me that the average punter will never own a self-driving car.

The main reason for this is that they’re going to be significantly more expensive than an old-fashioned car, mainly because of all the sensors. As pointed out recently in the New York Times, “[a]dding self-driving technology — at least as it stands now — into regular passenger cars could make them absurdly expensive for anyone without the cash of a Silicon Valley mogul. Until recently, the laser sensor used on the Google car project cost $75,000 [£50,000].” Even though that price is clearly going to come down, it’ll always be more expensive to produce a self-driving car than an old-fashioned one.

The additional costs mean that they need to be used much more than normal cars in order to recoup the cost. HGV lorries might (as mentioned in the article linked to above) adopt the technology first, because it means a lorry can then be on the road 24/7 with only one driver, which mean that the additional cost will be recouped quickly.

Normal, old-fashioned cars are just not used enough to make it worthwhile to make them so expensive. According to the RAC, the “average car is parked at home for 80% of the time, parked elsewhere for 16% of the time and is only on the move for 4% of the time.”

Because of this, a self-driving car only really makes economic sense if it’s being used as a taxi, so it’s no surprise that Uber are very interested in this area — they already have put self-driving cars on the road in Pittsburgh.

Even if some crazy individual were to buy a self-driving car, it would be a bit silly to park it when they’re not using it rather than letting it make some money on its own working for Uber or similar. Only multi-millionaires will buy a self-driving car and then leave it in the driveway.

So we aren’t going to replace our old car with a self-driving model. Instead, we’ll simply start using self-driving taxis more and more until we don’t see the point in owning a car any more. It probably won’t be long before young people can’t see any point in getting a driving licence, but I imagine companies like Uber might need to introduce subscription services covering all you transportation needs for a fixed monthly fee in order to tempt current drivers to give up their car.

The move to self-driving cars is of course going to be bad news for the majority of car manufacturers. If normal people don’t buy cars, there is absolutely no reason to have so many brands and models to choose from. It’ll probably be more like the situation in the aviation industry, where companies buy hundreds of planes and then decide how they want them to look.

bookmark_borderDet ville have været min mormors 100-års-fødselsdag i dag

Idith's birthday
Idith's birthday.
Min mormor ville være blevet 100 år i dag.

Idith, som jeg altid kaldte hende (som ældste barnebarn ville jeg bestemt ikke kalde hende mormor, når alle andre kaldte hende Edith eller Mor), samlede altid familien om sig på sin fødselsdag, så hvis hun stadig havde været i live, ville hun helt sikkert have insisteret på at samle hele familien om sig, og hun ville have trakteret os med jordbærkager og kokosmakroner (sikkert også med andre ting, men de to slags kager var obligatoriske).

Hendes fokus på at fejre sin fødselsdag betød, at man altid kunne være sikker på at se resten af familien mindst én gang om året, og resten af året brugte hun altid megen tid på at fortælle én, hvad de andre lavede, så det havde store konsekvenser for sammenhængskraften i familien, da hun døde i 2000 (to år, før jeg flyttede til Skotland).

Jeg håber, vi måske kan holde en lettere forsinket fødseldagsfest for Idith, når vi er i Danmark i juli i år.

(Min morfar, Otto, var et år yngre end Idith, så ham kan jeg skrive om næste år. Min fars forældre blev født i 1899 og 1900, så jeg var desværre endnu ikke begyndt at blogge, da de ville være fyldt 100.)

bookmark_borderNew URL

This blog is now more than ten years old (you can check the archives if you don’t believe me).

I recently changed its title from The Widmann Blog to Denseman on the Rattis (check The Flyting of Dumbar and Kennedie if you don’t get the reference).

I’ve also now moved it, changing its URL from blog.widmann.org.uk to widmann.scot. Given my continuing support for Scottish independence, I thought that was more appropriate.