Big SNP

A recent Scottish opinion poll gave the SNP a huge lead: Tory 8%, Labour 32%, LibDem 8%, SNP 48%.

They seem to have asked one general question rather than asking for constituency and list votes separately, so it’s hard to interpret. (The results in May were Tory 17%, Labour 32%, LibDem 16%, SNP 33% for the constituency vote and Tory 14%, Labour 29%, LibDem 11%, SNP 31% for the list vote.)

Anyway, if one puts these figures into both parts of the predictor at Scotland Votes, one gets a very yellow map and a parliament with 69 members from the SNP, 43 from Labour, 8 from the LibDems and 7 from the Tories (65 seats are required to have a majority).

I’m under no illusion that the results from the next election will be anything like that, but it’s going to get Labour very worried indeed, and it’s going to let the SNP have an easier time in parliament, given that none of the other parties will be interested in an early election!