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Diplomacy

Facebook’s recent AI experiment

linguistic universals

bookmark_borderAntiblokpolitik

Det danske folketingsvalg var ret spøjst set udefra. Medierne opførte sig, som om Danmark havde et topartisystem og flertalsvalg i enkeltmandskredse, men reelt er resultatet da noget af det mest grumsede, man har set i mange år.

Det er ikke ret oplagt, partierne i Blå Blok har ret meget tilfælles — fx vil Dansk Folkeparti bruge flere penge, mens Liberal Alliance vil sænke skatterne.

Men der er jo masser af forskellige flertalsmuligheder:

  • De partier, der hverken er specielt humanistiske eller fremmedfjendske, og som sikkert bare gerne vil videreføre den eksisterende udlændingepolitik uden ændringer (S, V, C og LA), har 100 mandater.
  • De traditionelle regeringspartier, som alle generelt vil gøre, hvad embedsmændene fortæller dem (S, V, C og DrV), har 95 mandater.
  • De partier, der vil føre en stram økonomisk politik (S, V, C, LA og DrV), har 108 mandater.
  • De partier, der er store i Udkantsdanmark (DF, S og V), har 118 mandater. (Liberal Alliance og Enhedslisten klarer sig også udmærket i landområderne, men er noget mindre.)

Jeg synes, der er interessant, at S og V indgår i alle flertalsmulighederne ovenfor — måske ville en S-V-regering i virkeligheden være den bedste løsning? Hvis det ikke havde været for den absurde præsidentkampagne, som medierne førte, ville det vel have været en oplagt løsning.

bookmark_borderMangel på strategi m.h.t. SF

første pålidelige meningsmåling
første pålidelige meningsmåling, a photo by stilleben [‘stelle:b?n] on Flickr.
Det var ret tydeligt, at både Socialdemokraterne og Det radikale Venstre var ganske lettede over at slippe for SF i regeringen, og på kort sigt bliver alting da også meget lettere.

Men jeg vil nu gætte på, at de to partier i de kommende årtier kommer til at fortryde, de gjorde et parti fortræd.

Situation nu minder mig om folketingsvalget i 2001, da CD røg ud af Folketinget. Ligesom mange andre radikale var jeg himmelhenrykt, da jeg havde regnet fætter-kusine-partiet for aldeles overflødigt, men konsekvensen var jo, at Anders Fogh nu kunne danne regering uden at inddrage et eneste midterparti. DrV forblev ganske overflødigt, indtil Ny/Liberal Alliance blev stiftet og igen hev nogle borgerlige vælgerne ind på midten.

Jeg gad vidst, om ikke SF-massakren vil få tilsvarende konsekvenser. I teorien kan det da godt ske, SFs tidligere vælgere går til S eller DrV, men hvis de i stedet går til Enhedslisten, bliver det jo meget sværere at danne en stabil regering til venstre for midten, og hvis nogle af dem i stedet går til Venstre, LA eller Dansk Folkeparti, bliver det helt umuligt.

For en S-R-regering vil SF da til alle tider være et mere omgængeligt støtteparti end Enhedslisten, så de skulle da have gjort, hvad de kunne, for at beskytte SF mod vælgerflugt.

Nu ligger Helle Thorning-Schmidt og Margrethe Vestager, som de har redt. Førstnævnte bliver sikkert den sidste socialdemokratiske statsminister i lang tid, og sidstnævnte har nok sikret, at hendes parti i fremtiden kun kan søge indflydelse mod højre. Virkelig smart!

Det er desværre blot endnu et symptom på, at moderne politikere kun tænker taktisk og næsten aldrig strategisk; de tænker frem til næste valg, men meget sjældent på, hvordan de på længere sigt skal placere sig.

Jeg kender kun én klar undtagelse fra denne regel, og det er Det Skotske Nationalparti (SNP), der har tænkt langsigtet lige siden grundlæggelsen. Naturligvis tænker SNPs politikere også taktisk, men kun for at fremme deres strategiske mål, og det er derfor, de igen og igen udmanøvrerer deres politiske modstandere, både i Edinburgh og i London. Det har jeg skrevet et blogindlæg omArc of Prosperity.

bookmark_borderAlternativet

Folkemodet Uffe Elbaek 20120615 1868F
Folkemødet Uffe Elbaek 20120615 1868F, a photo by News Oresund on Flickr.
Det radikale Venstre har igen født et lille udbryderparti — hvis det bliver ved, bliver DrV vel snart kendt som alle partiers moder!

Denne gang er det Uffe Elbæk, som jeg jo kender ganske godt fra mine dage som aktiv i Århus Radikale Vælgerforening, som står bag, og hans nye parti hedder Alternativet.

Da Ny/Liberal Alliance blev stiftet, skrev jeg flg.:

Det er lidt underligt at se Anders og Naser bryde ud fra mit gamle parti og lave et nyt (“Ny Alliance“). Da jeg forlod Danmark, var de stadig kernemedlemmer […].

Det viser, hvordan jeg gradvist har tabt forbindelsen til Danmark. Jeg aner ikke, om jeg – hvis jeg ikke var emigreret – ville have gjort dem følgeskab. Jeg tvivler nu kraftigt på, jeg ville have gjort det, for socialkonservativ har jeg nu da lige godt aldrig været.

Jeg har det lidt på samme måde nu — og så alligevel.

Hvor jeg anså Ny/Liberal Alliances fremkomst for lidt af en anakronisme, og hvor deres ideologi ikke appellerede til mig overhovedet, må jeg indrømme, at jeg faktisk synes, Uffe har nogle idéer, som tiltaler mig mere. Han siger:

»I Alternativet har folk en anden vækstforståelse, en anden økonomisk forståelse af en mere økologisk, cirkulær økonomi. De ord bliver slet ikke brugt hos de radikale. Der er heller ikke den samme form for social indignation i forhold til ulighed«, siger han i interviewet med Zetlands journalist.

»På en måde er Alternativet både mere rødt, mere solidarisk og mere iværksætter-agtigt på samme tid. Paradoksalt nok. Jeg synes, Alternativet er tættere på det, jeg synes er grundrødderne i Det Radikale Venstre. Bare i en ny tid«, lyder det endvidere fra Elbæk.

Jeg véd, der er mange, der føler, de danske partier er rykket så meget mod højre, at Enhedslisten snart er det eneste parti, man kan stemme på. Hvis Uffe gør det godt, kan han potentielt samle mange utilfredse vælgere op, som hidtil har stemt på DrV, Socialdemokratiet og SF, og som ikke har det helt godt med Enhedslistens uvilje til kompromiser og revolutionære partiprogram.

Når det er sagt, bryder jeg mig nu ikke om de radikale udbryderes måde at lave partier på. Jeg synes, det er en uskik at lave et parti i overskriftsform, finde sympatisører og først derefter at skrive et partiprogram.

Jeg er en stor fan af Det radikale Odenseprogram fra 1905, som blev skrevet af medlemmerne uden politikernes medvirken, og først bagefter fik de mulighed for at tilslutte sig det.

Det er måske lidt urealistisk i dag, men jeg mener nu alligevel, at politikken må komme først, og politikerne bagefter.

bookmark_borderSee you on Saturday!

My new Arc of Prosperity T-shirt
My new Arc of Prosperity T-shirt, a photo by viralbus on Flickr.
As you’re probably already aware, the 2nd annual March and Rally for Independence will take place in Edinburgh on Saturday (21/09).

I’ll be there, of course, together with my family. We went last year, too, and it was great fun. Have a look at my wife’s photos from the event.

I hope to meet you there, and if you like this blog, please say hello! I’ve got myself an Arc of Prosperity T-shirt, so I should be easy to recognise.

bookmark_borderIndividual retirement ages

Young & Old, Let's Get it On!
Young & Old, Let’s Get it On!, a photo by AlphaTangoBravo / Adam Baker on Flickr.

I read the following about rising life expectancy in a Danish newspaper (in Danish, translation follows):

»De [ældre] vil være stærkere både mentalt og fysisk. De vil kunne rejse jorden rundt også flere år efter, de har rundet 90 år, og benytte sig flittigt af samfundets tilbud. Vi ser det allerede mere og mere i dag, men det er en tendens, der vil blive forstærket«, siger Peter K.A. Jensen.

[…]

Systemet er bygget op, så pensionsalderen nogenlunde flugter med udviklingen i middellevealderen, hvilket medfører, at pensionen altid starter cirka 19 år tidligere end middellevetiden.

Det betyder, at danskerne ifølge prognosen vil have en pensionsalder på omkring 80 år, når middellevealderen runder de 100 år ved år 2090.


“The [elderly] will be stronger both mentally and physically. They will be able to travel around the world even several years after they have reached 90 and will make frequent use of what society offers. We already see it more and more today, but it is a trend that will be reinforced,” said Peter K. A. Jensen.

[…]

The system is designed so that the retirement age is roughly aligned with the increase in life expectancy, which means that the retirement age will always start about 19 ??years earlier than average life expectancy.

This means that Danes are forecast to have a retirement age of about 80 years when life expectancy reaches 100 years in the year 2090.

Although this quote is from a Danish newspaper, we see similar ideas in most countries these days.

However, two of my aunts died at the age of 50, my mum’s dad at 66, my father-in-law at 69, and nobody has ever reached 90 in my family. Also, the ones that don’t drop dead often start to suffer debilitating diseases in their sixties or seventies.

At the same time, some of my friends have family where everybody seems to live to at least ninety, and they are all sprightly until their late eighties.

I’ve therefore started wondering whether the rising life expectancy is due to some families growing older and older (because the diseases that used to kill them have been eradicated), while other families haven’t seen much improvement at all.

It’s also well-known that your life expectancy varies wildly depending on where you live. For instance, in the Calton ward in Glasgow, men can expect to live to the ripe old age of 53.9 (compared to 75.9 for the UK as a whole).

The huge variation in life expectancy makes it dubious whether it’s really such a good idea just to increase the retirement age across the board. If I’m right and the increasing average is due to some individuals living much longer while others still die in the fifties and sixties, the effect will be that some people will get wonderfully long retirements while other have to work till they drop.

Would it not be better to get actuaries to calculate individual retirement ages, based on family history, genetic profile, employment history, etc.? They could for instance work out each individual’s life expectancy and then set the retirement age to 19 years before this. (They could exclude some lifestyle choices from their calculations, so that you don’t get an earlier retirement age by taking up smoking.)

Of course they would get it really wrong at times, but it would give everybody a decent chance of enjoying a reasonable length of retirement.

bookmark_borderPrimary elections and party affiliation

Voter registration form from Florida.
Voter registration form from Florida.
It appears that Ed Miliband want to introduce US-style primary elections:

Ed Miliband used his crunch speech on union funding to announce that a ‘primary’ will be held to pick Labour’s candidate for the London mayoral election.

A step short of allowing every Londoner a say, it means that ‘registered Labour supporters’ as well as party members, would be allowed a say.

[…]

Lord Adonis, a former Transport Secretary and a key adviser to Ed Miliband, told HuffPost UK he expected the policy to be expanded across the country.

I’m not a great fan of primary elections because it gives people even less reason to be a member of a political party (selecting candidates is one of the few things you can do as a member without becoming an activist). However, I can see there are some arguments in favour of them, too.

However, there are quite a few practical problems associated with transplanting this American idea to Europe.

Firstly, in the US it’s the state that as part of the ordinary voter registration collects the information about party affiliation, and primary elections are typically conducted in the same way as real elections. However, I presume Labour are planning to collect the information themselves, and I think that’s going to be very hard. How many people are realistically going to contact the Labour party to tell them they’d like to sign up as a registered supporter? Especially given that Labour are very likely to use the contact details to pester the supporters for money.

Secondly, I can see how the American system prevents people from registering as supporters of more than one party. However, if the parties handle the registration themselves, nothing would seemingly prevent members of other parties from signing up as Labour supporters in order to hijack their selection processes. This wouldn’t be very nice, of course, but politics can be a very dirty game at times.

In short, I cannot see how primary elections can work without including party affiliation on the electoral roll.