Should Azerbaijan have won the Eurovision Song Contest?

For years, the Eurovision Song Contest has been decided through a popular vote.

However, this year they decided to give half of the voting power to professional juries in each country.

But what was the consequence of this?

They have now revealed what the result would have been if all power had been with the juries, but for some reason they haven’t done the same for the popular vote.

Could this be because the winner of the popular vote was Azerbaijan?

I’ve put the popular and jury votes into a table and subtracted one from the other:

Azerbaijan	112	207	95
Norway	312	387	75
Turkey	114	177	63
Greece	93	120	27
Russia	67	91	24
Albania	26	48	22
Armenia	71	92	21
B&H	90	106	16
Spain	9	23	14
Finland	12	22	10
Romania	31	40	9
Ukraine	68	76	8
Sweden	27	33	6
Estonia	124	129	5
Portugal	64	57	-7
Lithuania	31	23	-8
Croatia	58	45	-13
Moldova	93	69	-24
Germany	73	35	-38
Iceland	260	218	-42
Denmark	120	74	-46
UK	223	173	-50
Israel	107	53	-54
Malta	87	31	-56
France	164	107	-57

Of course, the right-hand column does not show exactly what people voted, only how much they diverged from the juries, so perhaps Norway would still have won.

But I think it’s beyond doubt that Azerbaijan would have been very close to winning, and that the UK and especially France would have been huge disasters had they not introduced juries.