The general election will take place on 3rd June
The news that the UK is only just out of recession (provided that the 0.1% growth figure isn’t adjusted downwards, and its “chances of being revised down by 0.1pc or more are about evens“) means one thing: The next general election will take place on the 3rd of June.
In theory, Gordon Brown can call an election for March, April, May or 3rd June.
However, the next figures will come out in three months’ time, and given that even the Chancellor thinks they might show we’re back in recession, only a very brave man (which he is not) would call an election that saw the figures being released during the election campaign.
This means that he has the choice between March or June.
The sensible choice would be March, while we’re at least officially out of recession, but I’m sure Brown will feel the figures aren’t convincing enough to allow him to pose as the saviour of Britain, so the feartie from Fife will wait till he has had time to massage April’s growth figures if they aren’t to his liking.
I hope I’m wrong, though. The sooner we get rid of Brown, the better.