Denseman on the Rattis

Formerly known as the Widmann Blog


The third debate, King, and the secret hopes of the Tories

Mervyn King in Berlin
Originally uploaded by Downing Street

Most pollsters agree that Cameron won the third debate and that Brown lost it.

However, swing voters seemed to think Clegg did best.

FiveThirtyEight have published a post-debate analysis of seats, and for the scenario where the Tories advance a tiny bit while the LibDems take many votes away from Labour (Con 36, LD 31, Lab 24), they predict Con 335, LD 144, Lab 140.

In other news yesterday, Mervyn King (the governor of the Bank of England) was reported to have said that “whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be.”

I was very disappointed that nobody confronted them with this quote in yesterday’s debate, but it makes me wonder whether the Tories are making a huge mistake by trying to win this election.

Just imagine the next general election in 2014 if the Conservatives have had a very small majority of 335 (out of 650) while the LibDems have been the official opposition…

If King and the IFS are right, and if the Greek crisis starts affecting the UK, the country would have seen four extremely painful years, full of strikes, unemployment and bankruptcies, and it would all be blamed on the Tories.

Meanwhile, Clegg and Cable would have been pointing out all their errors every week at the despatch box.

I can’t help thinking the Tories would secretly prefer a hung parliament that would allow them to share the blame.

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