After my disastrous predictions for 2011, here are my predictions for 2012:
- The referendum on Scottish independence won’t take place yet.
- SF will leave the Danish government.
- It will again become possible to get a Danish passport in Scotland.
- The euro will not collapse – all current members will remain inside the Eurozone.
- The British inflation rate (measured by CPI) will not fall below 4%.
- UEFA 2012 will be won by the Netherlands.
- After a year with record-breaking levels of rain, Scotland will enjoy its second-warmest year ever.
- The Icelandic volcano Katla will erupt and cause a new flight ban over Europe.
- The Russian government will be forced to step down and call fresh elections.
- The Eurovision Song Contest will be won by Georgia.
I’m afraid that my predictions for 2011 weren’t that great:
- There will be a general election in Denmark. The Social Democrats and SF will form a minority government, which will quickly get into serious trouble trying to carry out their legislative programme. Wrong: After the election, the Social Liberals entered the government, too, and so far they’re managing to govern.
- There won’t be a general election in the UK, but the LibDems will get more and more worried about their lack of support in the opinion polls. Not right: Of course there was no election, but the LibDems seem quite relaxed.
- In Scotland, Labour will win the election but will be unable to find a coalition partner, so they’ll form a minority government. Wrong: The SNP won a landslide victory and formed a majority government. (I’m actually quite happy about being wrong here!)
- The outcome of the AV referendum will be Yes (but it’ll be a narrow victory). Wrong: The outcome was a resounding No.
- There’ll be snow on the ground in Scotland for most of the time until the end of March. We’ll then have a warm and sunny early summer, but late summer and autumn will be cold and wet, and we’ll have another white Christmas. Almost right: I got most of the year right, but Christmas wasn’t white.
- Facebook will get serious competition, but they won’t be overtaken yet as the default social networking site. Right: Google+ got off to a good start, but didn’t manage to chuck Facebook off the throne.
- The best-selling tablet computer towards the end of 2011 won’t be the iPad. Wrong: Although there are more and more competitors, the iPad still rules the tablet market.
- Economically, Germany will start pulling the Eurozone out of the slump, but there’ll be more bad news from the US. There won’t be any sovereign defaults (yet). Wrong-ish: Germany was doing OK initially, but then ground to a halt again. The Eurozone is doing worse than a year ago. News from the US are mixed. But at least I was right about the sovereign defaults.
- Petrol prices will reach £1.50 per litre. Wrong: I think they got as high as £1.45, but prices then fell back a bit again.
- Neither Denmark nor Scotland will qualify for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship. Wrong: Denmark managed to qualify, although Scotland didn’t.
I think a lesson to learn from this is not to put so many different predictions into each item – it’s too likely to get half of it right, which makes it pretty hard to assess later.