Denseman on the Rattis

Formerly known as the Widmann Blog


Benevolent humans?

Daniel Finkelstein wrote a good critique of Brown’s record yesterday:

In his book The Black Swan, the financial analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb provides a useful analogy. In the months before Thanksgiving, turkeys begin to build up a theory about mankind. Man is benevolent. Every day he appears with more food, and the turkey is allowed to get fatter and fatter. And then, about a week before Thanksgiving, the turkey will, as Taleb puts it, “incur a reversion of belief”.

Our view of the Brown decade is like the turkey’s view of mankind, utterly destroyed by what has now happened. The stability was a trick of the light, the lengthy period of growth was fuelled by house prices and debt, the low interest rates (of which Brown is still, amazingly, boasting) were an error.

Do read the whole article!

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