FiveThirtyEight, an American election web site that was the place to visit for predictions about US elections (their coverage of the last presidential election was awesome) have started to make predictions about the UK election.
They are working on a different model than most British forecasters, and in general they’re forecasting a worse result for Labour, and a better one for the LibDems.
However, as far as I can tell, at the moment they’re just playing around with the model, so they’re just showing the outcomes of various scenarios.
In particular, I’m concerned they don’t seem to have any empirical basis for estimating voter movements between the parties – they just seem to make up numbers that add up to the current poll figures.
They’ve promised further blog postings in the near future, though, so hopefully there’ll be some really good forecasts soon.
Update (29/4): They have now updated their prediction to 299/120/199.