If the EU was like the US
Although I’m often very critical of the US, I’m a big fan of their constitution.
So while we’re waiting for the results from the presidential election, I thought it’d be interesting to imagine how the EU presidential election would work if the EU had imported the US political system wholesale.
The EU Senate would consist of two members from each member state, so 54 members in total (there are 50 members of the US Senate).
The EU House of Representatives would have 435 members (see below for details), just like its US equivalent.
The Electoral College for the EU presidential election would have as many electors for each state as the two above figures combined. For instance, Denmark would have five members of the House of Representatives and two members of the Senate, so this member state would have seven presidential electors. Brussels DC wouldn’t technically speaking be a state, so it wouldn’t be represented in the two houses, but it would nevertheless have three electors.
Using the algorithm for calculating the apportionment for the House of Representatives that is used in the US would lead to the following figures for the EU, using the most recent population figures:
| State | House of Representatives | Senate | Electoral College |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Belgium (excl. Brussels) | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| Brussels DC | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Bulgaria | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Cyprus | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Czech Republic | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| Denmark | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Estonia | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Finland | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| France | 55 | 2 | 57 |
| Germany | 71 | 2 | 73 |
| Greece | 10 | 2 | 12 |
| Hungary | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| Ireland | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Italy | 53 | 2 | 55 |
| Latvia | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Lithuania | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Luxembourg | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Malta | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Netherlands | 14 | 2 | 16 |
| Poland | 33 | 2 | 35 |
| Portugal | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| Romania | 19 | 2 | 21 |
| Slovakia | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Slovenia | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Spain | 40 | 2 | 42 |
| Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| United Kingdom | 54 | 2 | 56 |
| Total | 435 | 54 | 492 |
(Whereas the most populous EU member state — Germany — would have 73 electors, the largest number in the US is California’s 55 electors.)
To become president, a candidate would thus need to get one more than half the 492 electors, or at least 247 electors.
Interestingly, it’s quite feasible there could be a draw (for instance, Austria, Belgium, Brussels DC, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Germany, Romania, Slovakia and the UK against the rest would add up to 246 electors on each side), in which case the House of Representatives would choose the president, and the Senate would choose the vice-president.