Denseman on the Rattis

Formerly known as the Widmann Blog


Con 251, LD 181, Lab 177

I saw on UK Polling Report that Angus Reid is now reporting these figures: Con 32%, LD 32%, Lab 24%.

This is such a big gap between the LibDems and Labour that it made me wonder whether this could actually lead to Labour becoming the third party in the UK.

Using information about who is switching to the LibDems, namely that it’s mainly in the north of England, and not really in Scotland, I used the Electoral Calculus Regional Predictor and got these figures: Con 251, LD 181, Lab 177.

So it is possible! The LibDems have a realistic change of becoming the second party and shoving Labour away from the dispatch box.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *