Denseman on the Rattis

Formerly known as the Widmann Blog


Labour will be reduced to 93 seats in Westminster

52% Tory
52% Tory, 23% Labour, 12% LibDem, 4% SNP/PC.
The new Mori poll has Con 52%, Lab 24%, LibDem 12%, SNP/Plaid Cymru 4% (the latter is a UK figure, so probably something like 40% in Scotland).

Some reports have claimed that this would lead to the following seat distribution in Westminster (using Electoral Calculus): Con 493, Lab 121, LibDem 8.

However, this is not taking into account that the SNP rather than the Tories are the ones benefitting from Labour’s collapse.

If instead one uses Electoral Calculus’s regional predictor, the result is even more stunning.

Basically, one needs to put in a higher value for the Conservatives in the “National support” row to compensate for what we’ll do for Scotland; 53.7% seems to work. Now press “Use trend values”, and it’ll fill in regional values. Now move 20% from the Tories to the SNP in Scotland (so that the Scottish values are 16.3%, 27.3%, 12.0%, 37.7%) and press the Tab key, and the “National average” row will set itself to 52, 24 and 12. Now click “Predict Election”.

The result is Con 490, Lab 93, LibDem 9, SNP/PC 38.

Labour casualties include Geoff Hoon, John Hutton, Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, Des Browne and Charles Clarke, while the LibDems are due to lose Nick Clegg, Chris Huhne and Vince Cable.

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