Denseman on the Rattis

Formerly known as the Widmann Blog


What to vote in East Renfrewshire

A few months ago, I gave some general advice on who to vote for in the General Election:

  1. If the LibDems have any chance of winning in your constituency, vote for them.
  2. If not, vote SNP/PC if they have a chance.
  3. If it’s down to Labour or the Conservatives, evaluate the local candidates and make your own choice.

It’s now time to have a closer look at the constituency I live in: East Renfrewshire.

Based on the last Westminster election in 2005, it would be easy to conclude that it’s a two-horse race between Labour and the Tories (Labour 43.9%, Cons 29.9%, Liberal Democrat 18.3%, SNP 6.8%).

It’s possible, though, that the SNP’s share of the vote was depressed by fielding a candidate called Osama less than four years after 9/11.

Also, the situation is more complex if one looks at the other elections that have taken place in the meantime.

Let’s start with the local elections in 2007 (1st graph on this page), which were conducted using STV (FPTP had been used in previous local elections).

The two largest parties were the Conservatives and Labour, with the SNP in third place. This is interesting, because it was a huge gain for the SNP: In 2003, the seat distribution (under FPTP) was Lab 8, Cons 7, LD 3, SNP 0.

At the same time, there were elections for the Scottish Parliament. These were conducted using the AMS system, which is basically FPTP with top-up seats.

The FPTP component was a two-horse race between Labour (35.8%) and the Conservatives (33.6%), with the SNP getting 18.9% and the LibDems only 8.5%.

However, the top-up votes probably showed more clearly people’s actual preferences, and this is shown in the second graph. Labour and the Tories were still the two largest parties, but the SNP were very close, and the LibDems did very poorly.

Similar patterns were seen at the European Elections in 2009, only this time the SNP actually overtook Labour (as seen in the third graph).

I would therefore conclude that East Renfrewshire is practically a three-horse race at the moment, with the Tories as the favourites to beat Labour, but where the SNP also have a fair chance of winning.

The LibDems, on the other hand, do not have a realistic chance of success in this seat.

Following my general advice, I must therefore recommend voting SNP in East Renfrewshire.

This recommendation is strengthened by examining the candidates:

  • Jim Murphy is well-known as the current Secretary of State for Scotland, who seems to think it’s his job to quarrel with Alex Salmond rather than working with him to get the best possible deal for Scotland. He seems unlikely to stand up to Gordon Brown and help recreate an electable Labour party.
  • The Tory candidate, Richard Cook, is commercial manager for Biffa Waste Services, and in his election leaflets he doesn’t provide a single positive reason to vote for him, only reasons not to vote for Jim Murphy. Also, he’s been a parliamentary candidate several times before, and he’s always been the loser.
  • Gordon MacDonald, the LibDem candidate, holds important posts in CARE (the Christian charity) and Care not Killing (an anti-euthanasia group), which seems a bit lopsided (although on the positive side he as a PhD in the Political Economy of Defence Procurement).
  • The SNP’s Gordon Archer is managing director for Carbon Accountable (a company advising on how to combat climate change) and has in the past worked as senior advisor and spokesperson for John Swinney, so he should be strong on both environmental and general politics.

3 thoughts on “What to vote in East Renfrewshire

  • Perhaps I am commenting before reading sufficient amounts of your material. Your recommend voting SNP, I am unclear on your reasons.

    I certainly agree the LibLabCon party needs broken, but fail to see why your opposition appears to be solely to the LabCon element of this tripartisan arrangement.

    All parties colluded in surrendering our sovereignty to the unelected dictators in the EU. All parties have worked towards this goal, some occasionally voicing opposition for political gain. I fail to see why one would wish to vote for any of these, unless merely to stop Labour from gaining a 4th term and finishing off our country, or to remove the ID card / Iraq War / EU supporter, Jim Murphy from office.

    I am unsure which party represents the greatest danger, SNP or Labour. The Tories may actually put up a little resistance to the EU power grab, which unfortunately (with Lisbon)is continuing apace. The SNP would see our country split, and Scotland promptly moved into full EU control. They claim independence, yet actually mean breaking up our country, only to be ruled from Brussels. Labour would see continued mass immigration, continued Political Correctness (Frankfurt School Subversion), continuation of clandestine secret networks (such as Common Purpose), and the perpetuation of the anti democratic Quangos, such as EHCR). Both would see the gap between rich and poor continue to grow, both would see continued breakdown of the family units and society, both would see disillusionment and disenfranchisement increase.

    I am unsure of your motives, however, the last things I would wish to see in the UK are the SNP holding a majority in Hollyrood, and Labour return for a 4th term.

    I personally would like to see the UKIP or BNP gain a foothold in Westminster. If we do not take action now to stop the destruction of our freedoms and democracy, we will be removed from power entirely. I would like to put up a fight, rather than go down in history as the apathetical generation that paid homage to celebrity, and sttod by as our free nation, democracy and freedom were removed, and our country amalgomated into the quasi marxist / fascist EUSSR.

  • I think the above post, does have some sense it, however I could never take a person who is pro-BNP seriously.

  • no i will not be voting snp.ever.


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