My predictions for 2012 :-(
I guess it’s time to evaluate my predictions for 2012:
- The referendum on Scottish independence won’t take place yet. Right.
- SF will leave the Danish government. Wrong, but they changed their leader.
- It will again become possible to get a Danish passport in Scotland. Well, not for adults, but small children can now again get it here as far as I know.
- The euro will not collapse – all current members will remain inside the Eurozone. Right.
- The British inflation rate (measured by CPI) will not fall below 4%. Wrong — it fell as low as 2.2% before rising again.
- UEFA 2012 will be won by the Netherlands. Wrong.
- After a year with record-breaking levels of rain, Scotland will enjoy its second-warmest year ever. Wrong; Scotland had a very warm March, but not in general a very warm year, and although it has been the wettest year ever in England, Scotland hasn’t been quite as exceptional.
- The Icelandic volcano Katla will erupt and cause a new flight ban over Europe. Wrong.
- The Russian government will be forced to step down and call fresh elections. Wrong.
- The Eurovision Song Contest will be won by Georgia.Wrong.
So, about 2 1/2 out of 10. 🙁
I’m afraid that Troels — who predicted “the negation of each individual statement” — produced a more accurate forecast.
Troels is the better forecaster, I’m afraid.
I even won with a reasonable margin 🙂 I think I am ready with my prediction for 2013: The negation of what Thomas says!
However, as Phyllis just said to me, many of my predictions were very specific events (such as the Netherlands winning UEFA2012), which typically have a much lower probability than their negation.
This time, make negative predictions: “Obama will NOT be assasinated.” “The world will NOT come to an end” “Thorning-Schmidt will NOT leave politics” “Tchad will NOT qualify for the 2014 FIFA World Cup” etc. /JeppeSN
Sounds like a great plan!
At least that would make Troels’s negative predictions very positive (and unlikely!).