The new Mori poll has Con 52%, Lab 24%, LibDem 12%, SNP/Plaid Cymru 4% (the latter is a UK figure, so probably something like 40% in Scotland). Some reports have claimed that this would lead to the following seat distribution in Westminster (using Electoral Calculus): Con 493, Lab 121, LibDem 8. However, this is not taking into account that the SNP rather than the Tories are the ones benefitting from Labour’s collapse. If instead one uses Electoral Calculus’s regional predictor, the result is even more stunning. Basically, […]